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I know the Boston Red Sox really took the August defeats at the hands of the Yankees hard, but I absolutely underestimated the devastation. As you know, I was sure that George Steinbrenner would win the Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes. My god, the Yankees were resoundingly and firmly put in second place by the Red Sox insane bid of $51.11 million! Or were they?

Now the fun starts. The Boston Globe even has a 30-day clock counting backwards, right down to the second, adding to the sense of urgency to get a deal done by midnight December 14th. Can you imagine the embarrassment to the Red Sox organization if they are unable to sign this unproven commodity? And what will it take? Matsuzaka’s agent, Scott Boras, is a barracuda. Some of the early figures being tossed around are 4 years for at least $40 million. If you’re Scott Boras, would you seek a longer contract than 4 years? I would. We’re talking about a 26-year old, not a 22 year-old. And if it is only 4 years, is $10 million a year going to be enough? Is Boras willing to settle for less per year for this player than the Red Sox paid the Seibu Lions for bidding rights? This contract won’t get done for less than $100 million.

And this begs a couple of questions – did the Red Sox really win this thing? Or were they more focused on outbidding the Yankees? And, in doing so, did they really make a savvy and sound business decision? Let’s do the math. For arguments sake, let’s say the experts are correct and the deal gets done for $10 million per season for 4 years. Now, factor in the $51.11 million negotiating fee and we are at the $91.11 million mark. If they are willing to pay a 26-year old who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors $22.77 million per season, wouldn’t the Red Sox have been better off taking a run at a couple of proven pitchers like, say, Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt or Jeff Suppan? Landing 2 proven guys would have given them a potential 40 wins a season out of 2 pitchers.

Andrew Zimbalist, an economist at Smith College who specializes in baseball finances, examined some of the avenues open to the Red Sox to cash in on their new superstar. Very interesting, really. You see, as a result of the revenue sharing system in place in Major League Baseball, the international merchandising revenue windfall expected from Matsuzaka will have to be shared equally with all 30 major league teams - as would revenue generated from selling international television rights. So, basically, at the end of the day, the Red Sox will pocket about $3 million a year.

No, I don’t like the deal. The Boston Red Sox didn’t win anything unless Matsuzaka takes them back to the promised land. The pressure on this guy will be enormous - so oppressive in fact that the pressure on A-Rod pales in comparison. What no one seems to want to talk about is that the window of opportunity for greatness for Matsuzaka is very narrow. Let’s remember - he’s not 22. He’s 26. He needs great success immediately - and great success is what the Red Sox expect. The Red Sox hope he is the second coming of Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemons combined. Time will tell - and won’t it be fun to watch. The clock is ticking...

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